Can free public transport really get people out of their private cars and onto public transit? We have a new paper showing that the answer is no. Link to the paper with ungated PDF.

We analyzed data from 11 household travel surveys across 7 metropolitan regions in Brazil (covering 25% of the national population) to measure the causal effect of fare-free public transit on people’s travel behavior. To do this, we took advantage of Brazil’s rule granting free public transport to people aged 60 or 65 and used a quasi-experimental design (regression discontinuity) that compares travel patterns of individuals just below and just above the age thresholds for fare eligibility.

🧩 Two key findings:

1️⃣ Fare-free transit increases the number of public transport trips among eligible seniors by about 7%.

2️⃣ This increase comes mainly from a reduction in walking trips. The policy has no measurable effect on car use.

🚦 In other words, fare-free transit can be defended on other grounds—such as promoting social inclusion—but it cannot be justified on the assumption that it will shift people from cars to public transport and thereby reduce congestion or emissions. Almost all studies around the world (for people of all age groups) point to the same conclusion.

💡 For cities seeking to curb car dependence, the message is clear: fare-free transit alone is not enough. It must be combined with policies that discourage car use and improve the quality and integration of public transport systems.

📄 The full paper provides robust evidence and international comparisons. The article is currently available in English, and a Portuguese version will soon be published by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea).